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We vote with our hearts

Posted by Jyalai on Friday, January 18, 2008 2:36:35 PM
We vote with our hearts, not our heads.

Let me give a few examples:

1) Huckabee won Iowa for one reason: he convinced evangelical Christians that a vote for him was a vote for their faith.  They did not look at what his policy stances were, they voted with their hearts.

2) Independents in New Hampshire helped McCain win that election.  What is it about independents and McCain?  Independents are anti-establishment at their core.  McCain's frequent attacks against his own party comes across as anti-establishment, even though much of McCain's policies support the DC establishment.  They voted with their heart.

3) Traditional Republicans in Michigan came out and voted for Romney as a visceral reaction to the idea that independents were going to upset the primaries.  After New Hampshire, Republicans in Michigan were not going to have their candidate chosen by a bunch of independents.  They voted with their heart.

The question is which candidate is reaching the hearts of South Carolina voters.  Huckabee is still trying to make it about 'standing up for Christianity.'  That is his strategy, even if his positions are anti-thetical to core Republican values.  He knows evangelicals will vote their heart.  McCain is still trying to make himself the anti-establishment maverick, even though his policy positions are Democrat establishment talking points. He knows libertarian and independent leaning Republicans will vote their heart.  Romney is trying to convince the rank and file Republicans that he is conservative enough.  The traditional Republicans will vote their heart.

Thompson has a problem in this area.  Selling conservatism intellectually is sometimes a hard sell.  How do you reach voters hearts when the message is a return to an intellectual ideal like federalism.  Thompson needs to identify how federalism helps people, how it positively affects everyday Americans.  He needs to get to their heart.

Sometimes, as political intellectuals, we forget that people do not sit around arguing the affects of free markets, limited governments, and national security in cerebral ways.  They want to know how the candidate will affect their lives.   Will he/she make them feel good about themselves?  Will he represent them well?  These are heart issues, not head issues.  In the end, these are the reasons people vote for a candidate.

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Don't Stick a Fork in it Yet

Posted by Jyalai on Friday, January 04, 2008 12:38:39 PM
Trolling through redstate gave me the distinct impression they think Romney is out of it.  I know a lot of them are Fredheads and would like to see Romney step aside for Thompson, but I don't see the numbers being all too bad for Romney.

Romney garnered 25%.  That isn't bad in a large field of candidates.  He may come in second in New Hampshire and get another 25-30%.  Again, that's not bad in the long run for two of the smaller states.  He could technically come in second in most of the states and show up at the convention with enough delegates to proclaim victory. 

The key  is that the states may split the top vote across the board.  Huckabee may win some. Guliani may win some. Thompson may win some.  Who knows?  Ron Paul may even win one or two.  Romney will probably win his own share.  In fact, the more split it is, the better for Mitt Romney, as long as he garners a high second or third consistently.

I am currently a Fredhead.  I believe he has the best total package.  But I would vote for Romney in a second over any democrat.  I would even vote for Guliani, Huckabee, Paul, or McCain.  I didn't mention Duncan Hunter or Alan Keyes since they really have no chance. 

Garlick's First Rule in politics:
The primaries are about candidates;  the general election is about party.

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Silver Lining

Posted by Jyalai on Friday, January 04, 2008 6:27:06 AM
In his blog on townhall, Patrick Ruffini makes this statement:

"The problem is that Mike Huckabee’s momentum brought in new voters off the beaten path — more Evangelicals, more women, people lower on the income ladder. Think about this: In the 2000 Caucuses, only 37% described themselves as “religious right.” This year, 60% described themselves as “Evangelical Christians.” That’s an imperfect comparison, but the universe of Evangelical voters almost certainly expanded this year. "

Many of us, who are just too uncomfortable with what Huckabee has said and done see his success in Iowa as a negative.  I have a different take.  I don't believe Huckabee has the ability to make it all the way through to the convention.  However, if he is bringing in new evangelical voters into the Republican party, its a good thing.  If these new voters are not alienated by the visceral reaction to Huckabee's win from those who think it gives them carte blanche to castigate evangelicals, they will vote for the Republican candidate in the fall and keep Iowa red.  Mission accomplished!

The fact that so many of them came out to get involved in politics for the Republican party gives me hope that this year, as in 2004, we will see a surge in value voters that will put the Republican candidate over the top.

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